A New Report Tackles The Myth Of Peak Oil

When will the world achieve the mythical threshold of “peak oil?” It is an eternal question many experts in the energy field have attempted to answer for well over a century now. Originally constructed as predictions about when the earth would reach a “peak” in oil supplies dating back into the late 19^th century, this theoretical construct morphed into projections of peak demand in the early 21^st century as global supplies proved far more bountiful and resilient than “experts” had predicted for well over a century.

The experts at the International Energy Agency (IEA) made news in advance of last December’s COP28 conference held in Dubai when they published a report predicting peak demand would happen before the end of this current decade. “Even under today’s policy settings, global demand for both oil and gas is set to peak by 2030,” IEA projected, adding, “Stronger action to tackle climate change would mean clear declines in demand for both fuels. If governments deliver in full on their national energy and climate pledges, demand would fall 45% below today's level by 2050.”

The IEA report was met with widespread skepticism, and it is fair to point out that the agency has published upward revisions to its near-term demand projections in every monthly report since then.

In a response to the IEA’s report in January titled “A history of ‘unrealized’ peaks,” OPEC traced predictions of “peak oil” all the way back to the 1880s, noting that “repeated predictions of peak oil supply have repeatedly been moved further into the future, and at ever-higher levels.” OPEC further pointed to its own recent forecast that projects global demand for crude growing through at least 2045, when demand would reach an unprecedented 116 million barrels per day, a rise of 15 million bpd from today’s levels.