Campaign Update: At Long Last, Election Day 2024 Arrives

Monday was a wild day on the betting markets as gamblers got their final bets down on the presidential race.

A week ago, Trump held a very strong 65-35 edge at Polymarket, but that margin steadily eroded across the second half of last week. Monday morning, Trump opened there with just a 55-45 edge in the odds.

But, starting at about 8:00 a.m. CDT, a bunch of big bets on Trump winning obviously started coming in, and by noon, he had run back up to 60-40. Just as quickly, big bets started coming in on Harris, and by 3:00 or so, it was back to 55-45. The odds fluctuated between those two margins for the rest of the day.

This morning, Trump has run all the way back up to 62-38 as of 6:00 a.m. CDT:

This stuff is just wild. That runup for Trump comes despite a raft of last-minute polls published by suspect groups that are obviously intended to depress GOP turnout today by showing Harris with a significant lead. Obviously, sophisticated bettors with real money on the line are ignoring a bunch of pollsters they’ve never heard of, which is sound advice.