Campaign Update: Can Trump Lose? Sure. Will Trump Win? Probably.

One of the consequences of doing what I do these days is that I start to get calls/emails/texts from friends - some of them long lost friends - in a panic in the week before Election Days seeking some comfort about why they should think Trump isn’t going to blow this election or have it stolen out from under him at 2:00 a.m. next Wednesday morning.

Here’s what I tell all of them when I get a word in edgewise in the conversation, which generally consists of them expressing one or another of the 7 stages of grief, albeit prematurely.:

• Could Trump lose? Sure.

• Can he lose legitimately? Unlikely, but within the realm of possibility.

• Is he going to have the election stolen out from under him next Wednesday morning in a coordinated multi-state op like the one we saw in 2020? Even more unlikely for a variety of reasons.

• Will he win? Probably, and that’s the best anyone can really say.

Let’s look at why I think Trump is set to win next Tuesday.