COP 28 And Fossil Fuels: A ‘Transition Away’ But No ‘Phase-Out’

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DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - DECEMBER 1: In this handout image supplied by COP28, (L-R) António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, John Kerry, Special Presidential Envoy for Climate for the United States of America and His Highness Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Abu Dhabi during the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 at Expo City Dubai on December 1, 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Mahmoud Khaled / COP28 via Getty Images)

COP 28 just concluded feverish negotiations in its final hours - actually, beyond its scheduled final hours - with the announcement of a final agreement Wednesday that includes language committing its near-200 participating nations to “transition away from” fossil fuels. That is the language negotiators landed upon to replace the previous language pledging to “phase-out” the use of coal, oil and natural gas across the coming decades preferred by energy transition boosters.

Many observers are no doubt left wondering what the real difference is between the two phrases, other than that the “transition away from” language was found to be less offensive to big producers and users of these energy resources than a phasing-out turned out to be. It isn’t a bad question, to be sure.

Advocates for this final language claim it is “historic” in that it is the first time any of the 28 COP conferences have overtly mentioned moving away from the use of fossil fuels in a final agreement. But it is fair to note that countries across the globe have invested many trillions of dollars - much of it funded by costly debt - in efforts to “transition away from” fossil fuels over the last three decades now and little has changed. The world still gets roughly 80% of its primary energy from coal, oil, and natural gas, only a sliver less than it did at the turn of the century. The world will use record volumes of all three fossil fuels in 2023, and most experts project it will do so again in 2024 and beyond.