Doug Sandridge: The Energy Transition That Isn't

[Note: This is an excerpt from a terrific piece posted this morning by industry veteran and expert Doug Sandridge on the state of the Energy “Transition” which is not any sort of real transition at all. You can read the full piece at Doug’s substack, Energy Ruminations.]

“Energy Transition” might be the most frequently used and misunderstood phrase in the modern energy lexicon. Humankind has been in a perpetual state of “energy transition” since the dawn of human history. Undeniably, we remain in the midst of a massive “energy transition;” however, it’s probably not the transition that you imagine. For context about the state of our perpetual energy transition, let’s examine a brief history of energy transitions.

ENERGY ERAS

One common method of understanding energy transitions is to analyze the transition from one “energy era” to another “energy era.” There are several legitimate ways of defining energy eras. It might be appropriate to define energy eras simply based on the magnitude of energy sources (e.g. the Coal Era could be defined as the period of history when coal is consumed as the largest source of primary energy).

Dr. Michael Orlando of the University of Colorado Denver, defines the beginning of energy eras retrospectively, according to times at which new energy-using technologies become sufficiently diffuse to drive rapid growth rates in use of new sources of energy. Those sources that prove to sustain dominant shares of total energy use in the future become the defining energy source of an era, even if they do not represent dominant shares of total energy use at the outset of the era. For the purposes of our analysis, we will utilize Dr. Orlando’s methodology for analyzing energy eras.

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BIOMASS ERA (the beginning of humanity until ~1850)

Spanning virtually all of human history, humankind burned straw, dung, wood and other organic plant materials for cooking, heating and lighting. By any measure, this period of history must be considered the Biomass Era.

During the later part of the Biomass Era, humans began to capture the power of wind and water for pumping and milling. Humans also learned to capture wind energy for sailing. Notwithstanding the rudimentary harnessing of wind and water energy during ancient times, the overwhelming majority of energy utilized for virtually all of human history has been derived from biomass. Even as late as 1850, more than 90% of global primary energy consumption was derived from biomass.

Figure 1: Global Primary Energy Consumption by Source (Percentage)

COAL ERA (~1850-1915)

For thousands of years, coal was used by civilizations in relatively small quantities for heating, cooking and metalwork. Over recent centuries, as human populations have grown, many societies gradually decimated their native forests. For example, by 1750, approximately 85% of Britian’s forests had been harvested to provide firewood and construction materials or cleared for cultivation of crops. As wood became increasingly scarce, coal gradually emerged as a consequential alternative to biomass for cooking, heating and lighting.

The first practical steam engine was developed by Thomas Newcomen at the beginning of the 18^th century. Contemporaneously, the Industrial Revolution began enabling mass production of goods, urban growth and the ability to economically transport goods long distances by steam engine trains and ships.

The initial success of the Industrial Revolution was largely predicated on the availability of ever-increasing amounts of energy-dense coal needed to power steam engines and furnaces. Ironically, coal-powered steam engines also became an indispensable tool for pumping water out of coal mines to facilitate the mining of ever-larger amounts of coal needed to power the Industrial Revolution.

Retrospectively, it can be established that the “Coal Era” began about 1850 as sustained coal consumption began to accelerate rapidly. At the beginning of the Coal Era, biomass consumption dwarfed coal consumption and it would be another 50 years before coal actually surpassed biomass as the largest source of global primary energy consumption (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Global Primary Energy Consumption by Source (Percentage)

PETROLEUM ERA (~1915-????)

Petroleum products such as unrefined crude oil, tar and asphalt have been utilized modestly by civilizations for millennia. Petroleum (bitumen) from naturally occurring seeps was used to waterproof boats and as mortar to construct buildings in Mesopotamia as early as 3000 BCE. The first streets of ancient Baghdad were paved with petroleum tar. Chinese dug natural gas wells by hand and burned the gas to evaporate brine into salt as early as 347 CE. Nevertheless, prior to the 19^th century, the uses of petroleum products and natural gas were acutely limited by their local availability and humankind’s limited technical abilities to harness their power.

At the end of the 19^th century, several factors converged to accelerate the growth of petroleum usage. Between 1846 and 1859, wells were dug/drilled in Baku, Poland and Pennsylvania specifically in search for crude oil. These events marked the first deliberate efforts to mechanically drill exploratory wells in pursuit of petroleum. Contemporaneously, scientists began developing methods by which petroleum could be reliably transformed, synthesized and refined into many useful products such as gasoline, diesel and kerosene, thus, vastly expanding the potential uses for petroleum.

Drake Well, Titusville, Pennsylvania 1859

Kerosene used for lighting was initially the primary use for refined petroleum. Just a quarter century later, the internal combustion engine was adapted to the first automobiles, thereby creating a fast-growing demand for gasoline and other refined petroleum products.

According to Dr. Orlando’s definition, the Petroleum Era began circa 1915 because it was about this time that sustained petroleum consumption began to accelerate rapidly. At beginning of the Petroleum Era, petroleum consumption was nevertheless dwarfed by biomass and coal consumption.

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NUCLEAR ERA – ALMOST? (1956-1980)

During World War II, nuclear fission was developed as a weapon of war. Indeed, the U. S. was the first country to harness the power of nuclear fission, which essentially brought WWII to a conclusion with the controversial use of atomic weapons. Following WWII, the world quickly recognized the immense potential of nuclear fission for peaceful purposes. In 1956, Britain constructed the first commercial-scale civilian power plant using nuclear fission to generate electricity. Nuclear energy for electricity generation provided the promise of abundant, reliable, affordable, low carbon electricity.

Calder Hall, Cumbria, England

Construction of nuclear power plants quickly grew during the 1960s and 70s. At one time, some people postulated that nuclear energy might one day be so abundant that it would be virtually limitless and almost free. However, accidents at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania (1979), Chernobyl in present-day Ukraine (1986) and Fukushima, Japan (2011) eroded public confidence in nuclear safety and ultimately suppressed construction of new nuclear power plants for more than a generation.

Notwithstanding these accidents, nuclear energy has historically produced approximately 20% of U. S. electricity and 10-18% of global electricity for decades. However, because of the stagnation of nuclear power development, nuclear energy has not yet come close to surpassing fossil fuels as a primary source of energy.

Emerging nuclear technologies and climate concerns have recently converged to precipitate a resurgence of interest in nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is currently being developed aggressively by China and Russia. There are many reasons to be optimistic that the U. S. and other nations may be on the cusp of a nuclear renaissance and the Nuclear Era may yet emerge prospectively.

RENEWABLE ERA?? (~2010–????)

Renewable forms of energy have been used for thousands of years. Persians harnessed wind energy for milling and pumping water circa 500 CE. During the 14^th century, French towns harnessed geothermal heat from hot water for district heating. Hydro-power has provided a significant portion of so-called renewable energy for over a century. However, widespread and impactful use of renewable energy has only emerged in recent decades.

Climate and environmental concerns have inspired a generation to develop improved low carbon “renewable” sources of energy. In particular, modern solar and wind technologies have advanced rapidly over the last twenty years, causing some to consider whether or not we might be entering the “Renewable Era.”

Although wind and solar energy have been growing at staggering rates for the past two decades, renewable sources of energy still only represent a surprisingly low percentage of primary energy consumption. In 2024, the use of renewable energy world-wide represented less than 9% of total global primary energy consumption. In the U. S., renewable energy represented approximately 14% of total primary energy consumption in 2024.

Past energy transitions have occurred organically as superior energy sources have been organically substituted for another. For example, the Coal Era emerged because coal was a denser and more versatile source of energy than biomass. The Petroleum Era subsequently emerged because petroleum was a denser and more versatile source of energy than coal.

However, the recent surge of renewable energy has not entirely occurred organically. Some portion of the rapid growth in wind and solar energy has occurred as a result of public policy mandates and supported by substantial subsidies. It is unclear how long the mandates and subsidies will continue to support the inorganic growth of renewable energy. Accordingly, it is unclear if or when renewable energy will grow at a sufficient and sustained rate to provide a dominate share of primary energy consumption which could justify calling it the Renewable Era?

JEVONS PARADOX

Jevons Paradox is an economic concept which explains how increases in the efficiency of using a resource can result in an increase in its consumption rather than a decrease. When applied to energy, Jevons Paradox occurs when technological progress or policy measures make energy use more efficient (thereby reducing the amount of the amount of energy needed for any particular use). However, as the price of energy inevitably decreases because of efficiency, new uses for the energy emerge, resulting in an overall increase in energy consumption (which might seem counter-intuitive).

Over the centuries, discoveries of increasingly efficient ways of using energy have seldomly resulted in a reduction of consumption. Instead, societies have continued to find new ways to use energy and consequently energy use almost always continues to grow despite the ever more efficient use of energy.

DECLINING FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION (as a percentage) vs

INCREASING FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION (in absolute terms)

Figure 3: Global Primary Energy Consumption by Source (Percentage)

Again, you can read the rest at this link.

That is all.