Doug Sheridan: California Blackouts Return Due to Wildfire Concerns

[Note: Doug Sheridan is a keen energy analyst and writer who posts commentaries on LinkedIn each day. I read him on a regular basis and, if you are on LinkedIn, you should read him, too. Enjoy.]

Bloomberg writes, residents of coastal California are facing potential power shutoffs this week as warm, dry winds sweep across the region, threatening to tear down utility lines and spark wildfires.

As many as 17 counties may see power cuts through as the winds rise, utility Pacific Gas and Electric Company said. Winds will begin to pick up Tuesday, when many voters will head to the polls for the US presidential election. Gusts around 50 miles per hour are possible in some areas, while temps could rise to 70F (21C) or more, the National Weather Service.

“The warmth combined with the wind is what is going to cause the fire danger to get really high,” said Ashton Robinson Cook, a forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center.

There is plenty of natural fuel to spark blazes in California after two winters of abundant rain allowed grasses and brush to thrive. Those plants have now withered following a hot summer. The wind gusts, typical of this time of year, would lead to “rapid fire growth,” the weather service said.

So far in 2024, more than 1 million acres have burned across California, which is more than last year but less than the five-year average of nearly 1.3 million, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, commonly called Cal Fire.

This year’s Park Fire in July was the state’s fourth-largest blaze in history. High pressure to the north and east of California is creating a conveyor belt of wind that rushes south and west toward the Pacific. The winds—sometimes called sundowners, diablos or Santa Anas—dry out and heat up as they cross inland mountains.

Our Take: As far as we can tell, California is prone to wildfires regardless of whether conditions are dry... or not. To wit, we've attached the current and last year's drought map for the state. Historically, these drought conditions are some of the mildest the state has seen in mamy years. Yet, wildfires still persist. In fact, wildfire activity in 2023 greater than in 2024. Doesn't that suggest that California needs to get it hands around management of its forest and vegetation today... rather than focusing on spending massive amounts on non-solutions to climate change that won't be felt until 75 years from now? Are we wrong?