Energy Transition? What Energy Transition?

We haven’t even reached Peak Wood, let alone Peak Oil or Peak Coal

Few energy analysts enjoy the level of global respect accorded to Vaclav Smil, a distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba and a best-selling author of 47 books. Whenever Smil publishes something new, people in the energy space pay attention. That’s certainly the case with his latest publication, a 48-page report titled “Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Net Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome.”

In the report, Smil details efforts to date by global governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and finds them wholly inadequate to achieve the goal of net-zero by 2050.

“To eliminate carbon emissions by 2050,” Smil writes, “governments face unprecedented technical, economic and political challenges, making rapid and inexpensive transition impossible.”

Among a wide array of major hurdles that must be overcome, Smil highlights the enormous scale of global energy use, the slow pace of energy transitions throughout history, and the fact that “major emitters like the United States, China, and Russia have conflicting interests.”

In discussing the slow pace of prior energy transitions, Smil echoes the thoughts of another respected energy analyst and writer, Daniel Yergin, himself a best-selling author of books like “The Prize,” and “The New Map.” During our interview in March, Yergin pointed to the fact that the transition from burning wood for heating and cooking to using coal – that began in 15^th century Britain – is still ongoing. Indeed, the world used more wood for energy during 2023 than any other year in history.