Forbes Piece: IEA Chief Predicts New Target Date For ‘Peak Oil’

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (R) welcomes the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol as he arrives to attend the outreach program on June 27, 2022 at Elmau Castle, southern Germany, where the German Chancellor hosts a summit of the Group of Seven rich nations (G7). - During the summit running from June 26 to 28, 2022, G7-leaders are to discuss their united front against Russia and troubling weakness in the world economy. (Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP) (Photo by TOBIAS SCHWARZ/AFP via Getty Images)

[Note: This story is also published at Forbes.com]

We’ve seen these predictions before, and they have always been wrong. But officials at the International Energy Agency (IEA) have decided to take another shot at predicting the date when the long-projected “peak oil” will finally arrive as part of its annual World Energy Outlook that will be published in October.

In an op/ed for the Financial Times headlined “Peak fossil fuel demand will happen in this decade,” IEA chief Fatih Birol predicts exactly what the title implies, which is that demand for not just oil, but also for natural gas and coal, will fall into permanent decline before the current decade is out. This is far from the first time such a prediction has been made, either by the IEA or some other promoter of the energy transition, and we can be certain it will not be the last. The question, as it has been for well over a century now, is whether this latest prediction is, unlike all the hundreds of similar projections that have preceded it, the one that will finally come true.

Mr. Birol seems fairly confident this time around, even going to the extent of saying this latest predicted “peak” will happen with or without any further green energy subsidies or other pro-transition policy decisions taking place. In this view, the cake has already been baked.