June Update From a DC Insider

[Mike McKenna is a long-time analyst/advisor/polling professional in Washington, DC. Also a former Trump staffer, he currently writes op/eds for the Washington Times, The Daily Caller and other publications. He sends out comprehensive state-of-play reports to a select email distribution, and allows me to share them with paid subscribers here.]

This month’s note asks . . .

-       are the convictions in New York changing anything
-       how things are going in Europe
-       can CBO be trusted
-       will the next president further expand administrative discretion
-       will America ever win a war again?
-       is ticket-splitting a thing
-       is optimism in our current moment defensible?

From:  Michael McKenna

Date:   June 15, 2024

Re:      June 2024 Monthly note

            Given that it is almost Summer, let’s just jump right into the water.

Convictions

There is no doubt that the convictions in New York have energized Trump voters and probably caused more than a handful of folks (mostly those who contributed 60 million bucks in two days) to hop off the fence and get into the game.

            For their part, the Democrats also clearly apprehend that this a moment to shake the money tree and energize the troops.

Who has the advantage?

It is difficult to answer that question, and it is not made easier by all the lousy opinion research work done in the wake of the conviction.  It’s not really important that the convictions make 15% of those surveyed less likely to vote for Mr. Trump, unless we first can be sure that they are likely voters who were planning to vote for him.  But the impulse to turn everything into propaganda has finally come to opinion research, so we now have to endure shoddy questionnaires answered by “adults” or registered voters who may or may not have had their opinion changed by the verdict.

This is your monthly public service announcement reminding you, at this point in the cycle, to ignore any surveys that are not of likely voters.

We’re about two weeks into the national digestive process and as best we can tell, the verdict doesn’t seem to have changed much, which suggests sentiments about it -- and the validity of the entire trial – have been baked into the cake for some time.  Mr. Trump continues to have a small, but discernible, lead and has (at least for the moment) reduced the number of swing states to just three – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin – while expanding his own map with the inclusion of Minnesota and the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Team Biden is going to need to win all five of those States to keep being president.  That’s doable, but it won’t be easy.