Monthly Update From a DC Insider

[Mike McKenna is a long-time analyst/advisor/polling professional in Washington, DC. Also a former Trump staffer, he currently writes op/eds for the Washington Times. He sends out comprehensive state-of-play reports to a select email distribution, and allows me to share them with paid subscribers here. This is his report for March.]

After skating just under the wire last month, I wanted to give myself a little more room this month.  As always, please feel free to contact me with questions, comments, or complaints.

The FY23 budget and the 2024 election

           Team Biden finally got around to releasing their proposed budget for Fiscal Year 2024 recently, and like most administration budget proposals since the terrible and destructive Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, it was immediately pronounced dead on arrival.

           Don’t be so sure.  Team Biden’s budget should be understood for what it is:  the initial and foundational campaign document for President Biden’s re-election in 2024.

The presidential election in 2024 is likely to be a winner-take-all contest.  Given the currently narrow margins in the House and the Senate, whoever wins the presidency in 2024 – Republican or Democrat -- will likely bring the House and the Senate majority along with them.

The sweepy nature of the electoral outcome in 2024 will be of most immediate consequence in the realm of taxes.  Between the expiration of many of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act provisions, the mono-partisan nature of the tax provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, and the consistent desire of progressives to tax unrealized gains, it is likely that a tax-focused reconciliation will be the first priority of a new president and Congress in 2025.

Mr. Biden’s budget submission makes it clear what he would do with respect to taxes and spending if he wins in 2024.  None of it is good.