New Report Says ERCOT Overestimates Future Grid Needs

Pablo Vegas, the CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), made big news in June when he told a Texas legislative hearing that his team had radically revised its estimate of future load demand on the state’s power grid. Prior to that hearing, ERCOT had estimated that generation capacity on the grid would need to grow from its current 85 GW capacity to 110 GW by 2030, a relatively modest 30 percent growth target that few saw as cause for great concern.

But at that June 12 hearing, Vegas informed policymakers that his agency’s new view is that capacity would need to rise by over 75 percent in just 6 years to meet rapidly rising demand caused in part by exponential growth in data centers related to AI technology and crypto mining. The new estimate shocked legislators and other state officials, leading Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, who presides over the State Senate in the Texas system, to speculate about the need to “take a close look” at AI and crypto mining, and their net contributions to the state’s economy.

Such concerns are far from limited to Texas and ERCOT. Independent System Operators (ISOs) of regional grids all over the United States face similar challenges. In fact, a new report by Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) cites the SE, PJM and WEST regional grids as facing needs for capacity growth that are equal to or higher than ERCOT’s future needs.

At the same time, though, EIR believes load forecasts like the one laid out in June by Mr. Vegas are significantly overstated.