OPEC: Peak Oil Demand Not on the Horizon

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais released a long statement on the topic of continuing projections by the IEA and others for so-called “Peak Oil Demand” being likely before the end of this decade at the cartel’s website today.

Here is the text:

In the 1990s and 2000s, the world regularly saw column inches devoted to the theory of peak oil supply, amplified by voices like Colin Campbell and Matthew Simmons. Decades later, however, it has still not come to pass, as enhanced economics and constant improvement in technology have helped lower costs and open up new frontiers to expand the resource base.

The past decade or so has witnessed a shift to talk of peak oil demand, with some forecasters increasingly pushing theoretical scenarios that have decided before any data is analyzed that oil should not be part of a sustainable energy future.

This is evident in some net zero scenarios, with suggestions that oil demand will peak before 2030, or more dramatically, that oil demand will drop by more than 25% by 2030, and with calls to stop investing in new oil projects.

This narrative was repeated only yesterday when the IEA published its Oil 2024 report in which it once again stated that oil demand would peak before 2030. It is a dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale.