Washington Update From a DC Insider - 3.18.2024

[Mike McKenna is a long-time analyst/advisor/polling professional in Washington, DC. Also a former Trump staffer, he currently writes op/eds for the Washington Times, The Daily Caller and other publications. He sends out comprehensive state-of-play reports to a select email distribution, and allows me to share them with paid subscribers here. This is his latest report.]

From: Michael McKenna 

Date: March 15, 2024 

Re: March 2024 Monthly Note 

We are going to take the warning of Caesar’s wife to heart and beware these ides of March.  Also, in the larger spirit of Lupercalia, we are going to settle some debts. 

The Election 

I’ve been gently chided by a few friends that I was unclear with respect to what I think might happen with respect to the elections being held next November.  Let me clear those decks, at least for the time being. 

With respect to the campaign for president, if the election were held tomorrow morning, Mr. Trump would probably win.  Please keep in mind that, as we have noted before, the race will be very close (likely decided by fewer than 500,000 votes spread across seven States and, if you like specificity, about 40 counties in those seven States). 

The race will also be volatile.  So, it is entirely possible that a month from now or six months from now, Mr. Biden may have the upper hand.