Washington Update From a DC Insider - 2.18.2025

[Mike McKenna is a long-time analyst/advisor/polling professional in Washington, DC. Also a former Trump staffer, he currently writes op/eds for the Washington Times, The Daily Caller and other publications. He sends out comprehensive state-of-play reports to a select email distribution, and allows me to share them with paid subscribers here. This is his latest report.]

From: Michael McKenna

Date: February 15, 2025

Re: Monthly note

As a contextual reminder, the current environment is about the same as it has been; the Republicans do have a trifecta, but it is not really a “governing” trifecta. They are operating with very narrow margins in both Congressional bodies, which will mean that everything will take longer and less will get done. Think about reconciliation and tax reform in that context, and minimize your expectations.

Despite the House Committee on the Budget approving a budget resolution last week, the Senate Republicans have made it clear that they want to and are prepared to proceed with a smaller bill now and a promise to pass tax reform later. At the same time, it has become clear that the only legitimate chance the House has to pass tax reform is as part of larger legislation that addresses the debt ceiling, reduced spending, and taxes. The votes are simply not likely to be there for any legislation that does not combine all three elements.