Washington Update From a DC Insider - 1.16.2024

[Mike McKenna is a long-time analyst/advisor/polling professional in Washington, DC. Also a former Trump staffer, he currently writes op/eds for the Washington Times, The Daily Caller and other publications. He sends out comprehensive state-of-play reports to a select email distribution, and allows me to share them with paid subscribers here. This is his latest report.]

From:              Michael McKenna

Date:               January 16, 2024

Re:                  January 2024 Monthly note

            It’s a new year, so we are going to start on time and be on point and finish on time.

Rollerball

Whoever wins the presidential election is going to be confronted with a number of immediate challenges – and opportunities -- with respect to taxes and spending, irrespective of whether they successfully “defended democracy” or “made America great again.”

First, it is likely that the debt ceiling will be reached in the beginning of 2025.  Increases in the debt ceiling are always emotionally and politically freighted, and that will be especially true at the beginning of a new Congress and a new presidential term.

Additionally, numerous provisions from the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) – President Trump’s signature accomplishment – are set to expire in 2025.  Extending them will not be cheap; the provisions are currently estimated to reduce federal revenues by $3.4 trillion over ten years.  There’s no telling how, or whether, the budgetary effects of those tax provisions will be addressed.