Washington Update From a DC Insider - 7.15.2024

[Note: Mike McKenna is a long-time analyst/advisor/polling professional in Washington, DC. Also a former Trump staffer, he currently writes op/eds for the Washington Times, The Daily Caller and other publications. He sends out comprehensive state-of-play reports to a select email distribution, and allows me to share them with paid subscribers here.

Please note that I share these with you because I’ve known Mike for some time and find him extremely credible and respect his insight. I do not necessarly agree with everything he writes, but that does not prevent me from finding his insights extremely valuable.]

From: Michael McKenna

Re: July 2024 Monthly note

Date: July 15, 2024

We seemed to have arrived at a moment of both inflection and introspection, so it seems appropriate to offer a very few, brief thoughts about the future.

Whatever you may hear or write, the assassination attempt on President Trump is not likely to be dispositive with respect to the election results. Mr. Trump is not that far ahead with respect to survey results and isn't likely to be anytime soon. His theoretical maximum percentage of the vote remains somewhere between 48 and maybe 51 percent (assuming all his voters show up, which is a pretty chancy assumption).

The attempt to kill him may gain Mr. Trump enough support to win an extra state or two, but not nearly enough to be characterized as a landslide (which used to be defined as winning by ten points or more).