Great comments, David. One other key point is the compatibility of Canada's heavy oil with US refineries (and conversely, the incompatibility of most US crude). This is summarized nicely by Ed Conway writing for Material World, saying "other than Canada, there are really only two other serious contenders for heavy oil production worldwide ... Venezuela or Russia." Let that sink in ...
Lots of companies committed and lost lots of dollars because of previous govt in the USA, including billions committed from AB. I would not be surprised if AB wants something from Trump for those lost billions.
61% of the Canadian electorate support LNG extraction and 51% support crude oil extraction.
That being said, the threat of Trump tariffs against Canada are likely fueling resentment against shipping Canadian crude south to the US. It's my impression that Trump thinks that Poilievre will win the next election and he will then have a more favorable/favourable Canadian counterpart. But those tariff threats are working against a Poilievre win. Carney, who will likely be Canada's next Prime Minister, is no pushover when it comes to the US.
South Bow also doesn't look keen on a Keystone XL redo. I noticed this article on CBC News:
The journalist is from Calgary, Alberta. I read the article. It looks balanced. The article mentions Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada. Probably, South Bow won't want to take on this legal liability. As a new company, most of South Bow's PR is focused on selling themselves as climate conscious and safety focused. I imagine they would dread legal action from various climate groups such as Climate Action Network Canada.
On the US side, none other than the ACLU managed to oppose any routing of the Keystone XL through the entire state of South Dakota:
So, again, even with Trump backing, it looks like a long legal slog to reinvigorate this project.
Maybe, with more attention to avoiding South Dakota, lots of PR and public outreach, and favourable/favourable backing from the Trump administration, Keysone XL can still happen. But threatening or enacting tariffs against Canada is dumb and will only piss off and mobilize the Canadian electorate to align their energy and and mining exports away from the US.
They have the same problem but even worse in Canada where unscrupulous $billionaires, the same bunch that fund all the climate change, just-stop-oil type NGOs around the world, have created such legal hurdles and protests against pipeline construction that it is pretty near impossible to get one built.
A Canadian Trump, hopefully Pierre Poilievre, will ban those wealthy tax-free NGOs, or at least force them to have 100% transparency, radical transparency in their funding, no secrets, no secret anonymous donors. The premier of Georgia was proposing similar legislation and he revealed that he was threatened with assassination by an EU leader. NGO's = No Good Organizations.
I don't know the proportions, but I'm hoping that ending USAID and similar efforts are putting a dent in their funding. The most galling part of the anti-humanist's schemes was making us pay to fund it.
That is really infuriating. It would be cool for Trump to propose funding anti-Climate Change Alarmism, anti-DEI, anti-ESG, anti wind/solar projects & media around the World and watch all the insane screaming you will hear from the MSM & NGOs.
I would suggest Trump fund Blackmon here, Alex Epstein, Michael Shellenberger, Energy Bad Boys, and similar out of the CIA's budget. Now that would be a slap in the face that they would deserve.
See graph showing huge surge of support for Carney.
Quebec will never vote for Poilievre. However, given the threat of Trump tariffs, some in Quebec will likely swing their vote from the Bloc Québécois to Carney.
Jesus, I can't believe people are that ill-informed or just plain stupid. That's what you get from watching Canadian MSM, completely clued out. Trudeau was a Globalist WEF toadie whereas Bankster creep Carney is a complete Globalitarian WEF Misanthropic Psycho. Canada will be in real bad shape if that piece of garbage is elected PM.
He is promoting Poilievere, not Carney. You won't have economic growth or balanced trade with US under Carney since he is a fanatical proponent of the Green New Deal or Green Agenda or UN Agenda 2030 deindustrialization policies. Of which many Canadians are either too stupid or too ignorant to be aware of.
Carney would be economic suicide for Canada just as his compatriot, Starmer is in Britain. Just read David Turver's substack to find out what a disaster Starmer has been there. And besides being a bald-faced liar, promoting fascist political policies including censorship, lawfare, mass migration, two tier justice system, ESG, DEI all the way. A nightmare. Any Canadian with two functioning brain cells should be well aware of the Carney/Starmer tag team duo.
I don't have any positive or negative views about Carney. I'm not a particular fan of his. However, its obvious that Canadians are reacting to the Trump tariffs and swinging behind Carney.
What I can say is that I was in Vancouver a couple of weeks ago. I'm was born and grew up there. I happened to attend a public event. I was shocked at how angry people in Vancouver had become about the Trump tariffs. As you probably know, Vancouver is the legal, financial and export hub of Western Canada. These tariffs are definitely mobilizing Canadians to re-evaluate their traditional trade alignment with the US.
You will note in 2013 a rail train carrying crude oil, in Lac Megantic, Quebec, had its brakes fail and it rolled out of control into the downtown area where it derailed, caught fire and pretty much toasted the entire town center, killing 47 people.
It wasn't just a break failure. Various US hedge fund managers had been arbitraging CP Rail for about a decade, forcing them to cut costs, operate with only one railway engineer, and not upgrade their railway cars. The Montreal, Maine and Atlantic Railway was owned and operated by CP Rail.
Clearly, the same thing has been happening in the US, with their inaugural "high speed" (more like high slow speed rail) train falling off of a bridge and crashing into traffic, killing some folks. And the East Palestine derailment disaster, even worse than Lac Magentic.
Causes of the East Palestine Norfolk Southern accident:
-wheel bearing failure
-continued use of DOT-111 tank cars to transport flammable liquids and other hazardous materials.
-hot bearing detectors are part of system intended to warn crews to stop the train before the hot bearing can cause a derailment. The crew did not receive a hot bearing warning until the train passed over a detector in East Palestine, when the overheated bearing was about to cause its axle to fail. The crew began to slow the train using dynamic braking, but it was too late. A total of 38 rail cars derailed, including 11 rail tank cars carrying hazardous materials.
-the spacing between detectors, meant the crew did not receive adequate warning to stop the train before the derailment, NTSB investigators said.
The #1 cause of the East Palestine disaster is some evil people decided that it would be fun to light dozens of tankers full of vinyl chloride on fire in violation of just about every safety & environmental protocol that exists. Makes Fukushima look like a bad rainy day.
Anywhere I've worked that you would be immediately fired, heavily fined & imprisoned for doing a small fraction of that. Nobody could be that brash & stupid at the same time, it had to be of malicious intent.
Great comments, David. One other key point is the compatibility of Canada's heavy oil with US refineries (and conversely, the incompatibility of most US crude). This is summarized nicely by Ed Conway writing for Material World, saying "other than Canada, there are really only two other serious contenders for heavy oil production worldwide ... Venezuela or Russia." Let that sink in ...
https://edconway.substack.com/p/america-still-needs-canadian-oil
Lots of companies committed and lost lots of dollars because of previous govt in the USA, including billions committed from AB. I would not be surprised if AB wants something from Trump for those lost billions.
Agree that Trump needs to up his game in his negotiations with Canada.
Also agree with David Blackmon that, in principle, the Keystone XL was safer than the current situation with rail and truck transport of crude oil.
The Canadian electorate have shifted their position on energy policy in the last few years:
https://angusreid.org/energy-policy-trump-tariffs-oil-gas-solar-wind-nuclear-hydro-climate-change/
61% of the Canadian electorate support LNG extraction and 51% support crude oil extraction.
That being said, the threat of Trump tariffs against Canada are likely fueling resentment against shipping Canadian crude south to the US. It's my impression that Trump thinks that Poilievre will win the next election and he will then have a more favorable/favourable Canadian counterpart. But those tariff threats are working against a Poilievre win. Carney, who will likely be Canada's next Prime Minister, is no pushover when it comes to the US.
South Bow also doesn't look keen on a Keystone XL redo. I noticed this article on CBC News:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/keystone-xl-pipeline-trump-1.7468072
The journalist is from Calgary, Alberta. I read the article. It looks balanced. The article mentions Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada. Probably, South Bow won't want to take on this legal liability. As a new company, most of South Bow's PR is focused on selling themselves as climate conscious and safety focused. I imagine they would dread legal action from various climate groups such as Climate Action Network Canada.
On the US side, none other than the ACLU managed to oppose any routing of the Keystone XL through the entire state of South Dakota:
https://www.aclu.org/news/free-speech/south-dakota-cant-silence-our-protest-against-keystone-xl
So, again, even with Trump backing, it looks like a long legal slog to reinvigorate this project.
Maybe, with more attention to avoiding South Dakota, lots of PR and public outreach, and favourable/favourable backing from the Trump administration, Keysone XL can still happen. But threatening or enacting tariffs against Canada is dumb and will only piss off and mobilize the Canadian electorate to align their energy and and mining exports away from the US.
They have the same problem but even worse in Canada where unscrupulous $billionaires, the same bunch that fund all the climate change, just-stop-oil type NGOs around the world, have created such legal hurdles and protests against pipeline construction that it is pretty near impossible to get one built.
A Canadian Trump, hopefully Pierre Poilievre, will ban those wealthy tax-free NGOs, or at least force them to have 100% transparency, radical transparency in their funding, no secrets, no secret anonymous donors. The premier of Georgia was proposing similar legislation and he revealed that he was threatened with assassination by an EU leader. NGO's = No Good Organizations.
I don't know the proportions, but I'm hoping that ending USAID and similar efforts are putting a dent in their funding. The most galling part of the anti-humanist's schemes was making us pay to fund it.
That is really infuriating. It would be cool for Trump to propose funding anti-Climate Change Alarmism, anti-DEI, anti-ESG, anti wind/solar projects & media around the World and watch all the insane screaming you will hear from the MSM & NGOs.
I would suggest Trump fund Blackmon here, Alex Epstein, Michael Shellenberger, Energy Bad Boys, and similar out of the CIA's budget. Now that would be a slap in the face that they would deserve.
I love this idea. Also Robert Bryce. He's doing good work on helping local opposition to wind farms.
. . . a Canadian Trump? Poilievre?
https://angusreid.org/liberal-leadership-carney-freeland-trump/
See graph showing huge surge of support for Carney.
Quebec will never vote for Poilievre. However, given the threat of Trump tariffs, some in Quebec will likely swing their vote from the Bloc Québécois to Carney.
Jesus, I can't believe people are that ill-informed or just plain stupid. That's what you get from watching Canadian MSM, completely clued out. Trudeau was a Globalist WEF toadie whereas Bankster creep Carney is a complete Globalitarian WEF Misanthropic Psycho. Canada will be in real bad shape if that piece of garbage is elected PM.
"That's what you get from watching Canadian MSM" ?
Is the Financial Post main stream media?
Trump did Canada a Big Favour
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/trump-canada-big-favour-future
He is promoting Poilievere, not Carney. You won't have economic growth or balanced trade with US under Carney since he is a fanatical proponent of the Green New Deal or Green Agenda or UN Agenda 2030 deindustrialization policies. Of which many Canadians are either too stupid or too ignorant to be aware of.
Carney would be economic suicide for Canada just as his compatriot, Starmer is in Britain. Just read David Turver's substack to find out what a disaster Starmer has been there. And besides being a bald-faced liar, promoting fascist political policies including censorship, lawfare, mass migration, two tier justice system, ESG, DEI all the way. A nightmare. Any Canadian with two functioning brain cells should be well aware of the Carney/Starmer tag team duo.
All of that may be true, but regardless, the Angus Reid poll shows that Trump tariff threats are probably going to hand the next election to Carney.
I don't have any positive or negative views about Carney. I'm not a particular fan of his. However, its obvious that Canadians are reacting to the Trump tariffs and swinging behind Carney.
What I can say is that I was in Vancouver a couple of weeks ago. I'm was born and grew up there. I happened to attend a public event. I was shocked at how angry people in Vancouver had become about the Trump tariffs. As you probably know, Vancouver is the legal, financial and export hub of Western Canada. These tariffs are definitely mobilizing Canadians to re-evaluate their traditional trade alignment with the US.
Need to keep getting the word out and the facts out. We won’t change the mind if the cult but the undecided uneducated will become decided educated.
You will note in 2013 a rail train carrying crude oil, in Lac Megantic, Quebec, had its brakes fail and it rolled out of control into the downtown area where it derailed, caught fire and pretty much toasted the entire town center, killing 47 people.
It wasn't just a break failure. Various US hedge fund managers had been arbitraging CP Rail for about a decade, forcing them to cut costs, operate with only one railway engineer, and not upgrade their railway cars. The Montreal, Maine and Atlantic Railway was owned and operated by CP Rail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzWVSx_crUY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RstfTeV3X_4&t=82s
Bill Ackman, in particular, has been instrumental in forcing CP Rail to reduce safety:
https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2016/12/23/a-successful-case-of-activism-at-the-canadian-pacific-railway-lessons-in-corporate-governance/
Bill Ackman:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Ackman
Clearly, the same thing has been happening in the US, with their inaugural "high speed" (more like high slow speed rail) train falling off of a bridge and crashing into traffic, killing some folks. And the East Palestine derailment disaster, even worse than Lac Magentic.
Causes of the East Palestine Norfolk Southern accident:
-wheel bearing failure
-continued use of DOT-111 tank cars to transport flammable liquids and other hazardous materials.
-hot bearing detectors are part of system intended to warn crews to stop the train before the hot bearing can cause a derailment. The crew did not receive a hot bearing warning until the train passed over a detector in East Palestine, when the overheated bearing was about to cause its axle to fail. The crew began to slow the train using dynamic braking, but it was too late. A total of 38 rail cars derailed, including 11 rail tank cars carrying hazardous materials.
-the spacing between detectors, meant the crew did not receive adequate warning to stop the train before the derailment, NTSB investigators said.
https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/NR20240625.aspx
The #1 cause of the East Palestine disaster is some evil people decided that it would be fun to light dozens of tankers full of vinyl chloride on fire in violation of just about every safety & environmental protocol that exists. Makes Fukushima look like a bad rainy day.
Anywhere I've worked that you would be immediately fired, heavily fined & imprisoned for doing a small fraction of that. Nobody could be that brash & stupid at the same time, it had to be of malicious intent.
Are you referring to the decision to “burn off” the vinyl chloride?